This Is What Peak Oil Looks Like

These things are related.

1. TheAtlanticWire: Suddenly, the United Arab Emirates Is Interested in Green Energy

2. ArsTechnica: We've hit "peak oil"; now comes permanent price volatility

Since 2005, the global production of oil has remained relatively flat, peaking in 2008 and declining since, even as demand for petroleum has continued to increase. The result has been wild fluctuations in the price of oil as small changes in demand set off large shocks in the system.

3. Total Vehicle Miles peaked in 2005 and have declined since then.
Federal Highway Administration

Projecting The Economic Gains Of Nationwide Carbon Pricing

The Analysis Group released the report The Economic Impacts of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on Ten Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. It is a study of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative agreement between Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Findings included regional economic gains of more than $1.6 billion and 16,000 new jobs in the three years of the program.

The population of these 10 northeastern states is 40,494,453.

The population of the United States is 308,745,538.

(via census.gov)

Projecting the job and economic gains of carbon cap and trade for these 10 states to the United States as a whole gives (over three years):

-105,990 jobs created

-more than $10 billion in economic gain

For comparison, the Keystone XL Pipeline which is in the news has been projected by the Cornell Global Labor Institute to eliminate more jobs than it will create.

[original news item via ThinkProgress]

2012 Predictions

My 2011 predictions had mixed results.

I was definitely wrong about Twitter being a fad; Bonderman having a great pitching year; and alien life being confirmed though the Mono Lake announcement got people excited. The others are a mixed bag.

The ones I got really right were Verlander having an amazing year; Ford's improving reputation (sales were up 11% for 2011); almost all shoe companies started carrying minimalist shoes; marriage and home ownership continued to decline; suburbs are being abandoned; Ming Tsai's One Pot Meals (wok cooking) was a Top 100 cookbook on Amazon; and many people cancelled their cable TV service in 2011.

Here's what I am thinking about 2012:

• It will be Microsoft's make-it or break-it year. Windows 8 and Windows Phone takes off or Zunes away. Regardless, Microsoft will be out of the operating system business in less than 10 years.

• Chia will be the new superfood fad, and the fad will turn into a diet

• A new masculinity emerges in hip hop. It'll be introspective and vulnerable. Childish Gambino and Tyler the Creator both had songs in 2011 that represent this new style; Shad had it in 2010; and Jay Z's song about his daughter is what will propel it to the big time.

• Sharon Van Etten!

• Stephen Colbert's aphorism of "reality has a well known liberal bias" will become more self-evident

• People will really get tired of the phrases "everything is better with bacon" and "I try to keep it simple and let the food speak for itself"

• People who call themselves film critics will get tired of Wes Anderson while Tarantino gets elevated to even more mythical status. Movie goers will love Wes Anderson.

• Still no Arrested Development movie.

• Cable companies will realize they started as aggregators and that is how they can make the most money now. Everything will be packet based.

• The conventional wisdom will finally draw the connections between energy supply - food prices - wealth aggregation - access to jobs and the Arab Spring/Occupy movements.

• The debate of "is Internet access a fundamental human right?" will get noisier.

• The world won't end like in the movie 2012 though I would not be surprised to see unprecedented climate chaos that displaces a large number of people.

• Apple won't make a traditional stand-alone TV, but really, they are going to put apps on the Apple TV this year.

• The next iPhone will do more than a Star Trek tri-corder and will be able to scan reality to make virtual maps.