I was definitely wrong about Twitter being a fad; Bonderman having a great pitching year; and alien life being confirmed though the Mono Lake announcement got people excited. The others are a mixed bag.
The ones I got really right were Verlander having an amazing year; Ford's improving reputation (sales were up 11% for 2011); almost all shoe companies started carrying minimalist shoes; marriage and home ownership continued to decline; suburbs are being abandoned; Ming Tsai's One Pot Meals (wok cooking) was a Top 100 cookbook on Amazon; and many people cancelled their cable TV service in 2011.
Here's what I am thinking about 2012:
- It will be Microsoft's make-it or break-it year. Windows 8 and Windows Phone takes off or Zunes away. Regardless, Microsoft will be out of the operating system business in less than 10 years.
- Chia will be the new superfood fad, and the fad will turn into a diet
- A new masculinity emerges in hip hop. It'll be introspective and vulnerable. Childish Gambino and Tyler the Creator both had songs in 2011 that represent this new style; Shad had it in 2010; and Jay Z's song about his daughter is what will propel it to the big time.
- Stephen Colbert's aphorism of "reality has a well known liberal bias" will become more self-evident
- People will really get tired of the phrases "everything is better with bacon" and "I try to keep it simple and let the food speak for itself"
- People who call themselves film critics will get tired of Wes Anderson while Tarantino gets elevated to even more mythical status. Movie goers will love Wes Anderson.
- Still no Arrested Development movie.
- Cable companies will realize they started as aggregators and that is how they can make the most money now. Everything will be packet based.
- The conventional wisdom will finally draw the connections between energy supply - food prices - wealth aggregation - access to jobs and the Arab Spring/Occupy movements.
- The debate of "is Internet access a fundamental human right?" will get noisier.
- The world won't end like in the movie 2012 though I would not be surprised to see unprecedented climate chaos that displaces a large number of people.
- Apple won't make a traditional stand-alone TV, but really, they are going to put apps on the Apple TV this year.
- The next iPhone will do more than a Star Trek tri-corder and will be able to scan reality to make virtual maps.
