Friday, October 31, 2008

The Other Shoes Will Drop Soon

These are three things I have been telling family and friends as to why things will get worse before they get better.

1. Peak oil is no longer debatable. FT: World will struggle to meet oil demand
Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de­mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360bn each year until 2030.

The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.

2. American consumers are tapped out. WP: Finance Crisis Hits Credit Card Business
Credit card companies say that their charge-offs of delinquent debt from card-holders have spiked to 5.5 percent, and could jump to 8 percent in coming months, a level not seen since the dot-com bust in 2001, The New York Times reports.

3. New car sales are almost non-existent which will lead to further job losses. See: Car sales are going from bad to worse

Serious Eats Interviews Alton Brown

Chewing the Fat: Alton Brown on Donuts

The Obama Endorsement Train Keeps Chugging

Technology All-Star Tim O'Reilly: Why I Support Barack Obama
Because this is a tech blog, not a political blog, though, I primarily want to address the subject of why members of the technical community should join me in supporting Barack Obama. (The New York Times has made a compelling case based on the broader issues, as has Colin Powell.) I outline four principal reasons:

1. Connected, Transparent Government
2. The Financial Crisis
3. Climate Change
4. Net Neutrality


Francis Fukuyama (key formulator of the Reagan Doctrine) in The American Conservative magazine: I’m voting for Barack Obama this November for a very simple reason. It is hard to imagine a more disastrous presidency than that of George W. Bush.

IHT: NH Republican quits McCain campaign to back Obama
A prominent New Hampshire Republican who was an alternate delegate to the party's nominating convention is quitting John McCain's campaign and endorsing Barack Obama.

Fred Bramante says he is resigning as a member of McCain's New Hampshire Leadership Committee. He had been a co-chairman of Mike Huckabee's New Hampshire presidential campaign and joined McCain after the former Arkansas governor dropped out of the race.

Bramante, a member of the state Board of Education, said he opposes McCain's support of school vouchers, which he said politicians must abandon if they want to improve education.

Bramante said he's concluded that McCain would do little to improve education, while Obama supports new and innovative ideas.


George F. Will, who still won't endorse Obama but doesn't have to when he calls out McCain and expresses admiration for Obama: Call Him John the Careless
From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism

Holy Schnikeys! The Economist?: It's time: America should take a chance and make Barack Obama the next leader of the free world
The selection of Mr McCain as the Republicans’ candidate was a powerful reason to reconsider. Mr McCain has his faults: he is an instinctive politician, quick to judge and with a sharp temper. And his age has long been a concern (how many global companies in distress would bring in a new 72-year-old boss?). Yet he has bravely taken unpopular positions—for free trade, immigration reform, the surge in Iraq, tackling climate change and campaign-finance reform. A western Republican in the Reagan mould, he has a long record of working with both Democrats and America’s allies.
If only the real John McCain had been running

That, however, was Senator McCain; the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as “agents of intolerance” now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.

Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia—to warn Russia off immediately—was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).

The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
...
Is Mr Obama any better? Most of the hoopla about him has been about what he is, rather than what he would do. His identity is not as irrelevant as it sounds. Merely by becoming president, he would dispel many of the myths built up about America: it would be far harder for the spreaders of hate in the Islamic world to denounce the Great Satan if it were led by a black man whose middle name is Hussein; and far harder for autocrats around the world to claim that American democracy is a sham. America’s allies would rally to him: the global electoral college on our website shows a landslide in his favour. At home he would salve, if not close, the ugly racial wound left by America’s history and lessen the tendency of American blacks to blame all their problems on racism.
...
Political fire, far from rattling Mr Obama, seems to bring out the best in him: the furore about his (admittedly ghastly) preacher prompted one of the most thoughtful speeches of the campaign. On the financial crisis his performance has been as assured as Mr McCain’s has been febrile. He seems a quick learner and has built up an impressive team of advisers, drawing in seasoned hands like Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. Of course, Mr Obama will make mistakes; but this is a man who listens, learns and manages well.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Bad Idea

Not jeans, but this from the NYT: A Push for Bailout Money to Help Car Buyers

Getting more people to purchase Detroit automobiles may help those companies in the short-term but over the next few years will simply exacerbate a used-car bubble. Perhaps people should be encouraged to purchase vehicles meeting certain requirements such as miles per gallon and emissions?

Alternatives

Instead of the NRA whose main goal is self-promotion, the American Hunters and Shooters Association.

Instead of the AAA which promotes road building and opposes curbs on CO2 emissions, Better World Club.

Newspapers For Obama

Amazingly, the UK's Financial Times: Obama is the better choice
In our view, it is enough to be confident that Mr Obama is the right choice.

At the outset, we were not so confident. Mr Obama is inexperienced. His policies are a blend of good, not so good and downright bad. Since the election will strengthen Democratic control of Congress, a case can be made for returning a Republican to the White House: divided government has a better record in the United States than government united under either party.

So this ought to have been a close call. With a week remaining before the election, we cannot feel that it is.

Mr Obama fought a much better campaign. Campaigning is not the same as governing, and the presidency should not be a prize for giving the best speeches, devising the best television advertisements, shaking the most hands and kissing the most babies.

Nonetheless, a campaign is a test of leadership. Mr Obama ran his superbly; Mr McCain’s has often looked a shambles. After eight years of George W. Bush, the steady competence of the Obama operation commands respect.

Nor should one disdain Mr Obama’s way with a crowd. Good presidents engage the country’s attention; great ones inspire. Mr McCain, on form, is an adequate speaker but no more. Mr Obama, on form, is as fine a political orator as the country has heard in decades. Put to the right purposes, this is no mere decoration but a priceless asset.

NYT: Barack Obama for President
Mr. Obama has met challenge after challenge, growing as a leader and putting real flesh on his early promises of hope and change. He has shown a cool head and sound judgment. We believe he has the will and the ability to forge the broad political consensus that is essential to finding solutions to this nation’s problems.

In the same time, Senator John McCain of Arizona has retreated farther and farther to the fringe of American politics, running a campaign on partisan division, class warfare and even hints of racism. His policies and worldview are mired in the past. His choice of a running mate so evidently unfit for the office was a final act of opportunism and bad judgment that eclipsed the accomplishments of 26 years in Congress.

Given the particularly ugly nature of Mr. McCain’s campaign, the urge to choose on the basis of raw emotion is strong. But there is a greater value in looking closely at the facts of life in America today and at the prescriptions the candidates offer. The differences are profound.

Mr. McCain offers more of the Republican every-man-for-himself ideology, now lying in shards on Wall Street and in Americans’ bank accounts. Mr. Obama has another vision of government’s role and responsibilities.

In his convention speech in Denver, Mr. Obama said, “Government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves: protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.”

Since the financial crisis, he has correctly identified the abject failure of government regulation that has brought the markets to the brink of collapse.

Anchorage Daily News: Obama for president
Gov. Palin's nomination clearly alters the landscape for Alaskans as we survey this race for the presidency -- but it does not overwhelm all other judgment. The election, after all is said and done, is not about Sarah Palin, and our sober view is that her running mate, Sen. John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation.

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain.

The Chicago Tribune: Barack Obama for president
Quite a remarkable endorsement; some excerpts:
Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.

We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.

The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.

This endorsement makes some history for the Chicago Tribune. This is the first time the newspaper has endorsed the Democratic Party's nominee for president...

...We do, though, think Obama would govern as much more of a pragmatic centrist than many people expect.

We know first-hand that Obama seeks out and listens carefully and respectfully to people who disagree with him. He builds consensus. He was most effective in the Illinois legislature when he worked with Republicans on welfare, ethics and criminal justice reform.

He worked to expand the number of charter schools in Illinois--not popular with some Democratic constituencies.

He took up ethics reform in the U.S. Senate--not popular with Washington politicians.

His economic policy team is peppered with advisers who support free trade. He has been called a "University of Chicago Democrat"--a reference to the famed free-market Chicago school of economics, which puts faith in markets.

Obama is deeply grounded in the best aspirations of this country, and we need to return to those aspirations. He has had the character and the will to achieve great things despite the obstacles that he faced as an unprivileged black man in the U.S.

He has risen with his honor, grace and civility intact. He has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions.

When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.

It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.

Editor & Publisher compiles a complete list: Tally Of Newspaper Endorsements -- Obama Widens Lead to 231-102
Obama's lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205. Obama, with 231, has already easily topped Kerry's number with many more yet to be tallied.

At least 46 papers have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain (see separate story on our site). In addition, several top papers that went for Bush in 2004 have now chosen not to endorse this year, the latest being the Indianapolis Star in key swing state Indiana.

The Chicago Tribune endorsed Obama--the first Democrat that it has backed in its long history. Three of the top five dailies in deep red state Texas switched from Bush to Obama this time.

And if you have ever wondered if newspaper endorsements mattered: Yes, Newspaper Endorsements Matter…

Monday, October 27, 2008

Conservative Obama Endorsements

Shocking endorsement of Obama by conservative legal titan Fried
In perhaps the most significant Republican defection yet, former Reagan Justice Department official Charles Fried, who had previously endorsed McCain and served on committees for the McCain campaign, has announced that he voted absentee ballot for Obama.

Fried also asked that his name be removed from McCain campaign literature. One of the primary reasons: Sarah Palin.

Former GOP senator, vet backs Obama
Former Sen. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.), who was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in the United States Senate, is the latest Republican to back Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign, Politico learned Sunday.

Pressler, who said that in addition to casting an absentee ballot for Obama he'd donated $500 to the Illinois senator's campaign, cited the Democrat's response to the financial crisis as the primary reason for his decision.

"I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better," he said. By contrast, John McCain's "handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous."

Cass R. Sunstein [this is a very well expressed endorsement]
He [Obama] did not want to take a public position until he had listened to, and explored, what might be said on the other side. He took the law exceedingly seriously, and he wanted to get the statutory and constitutional provisions right.

This is the Barack Obama I have known for nearly 15 years -- a careful and even-handed analyst of law and policy, unusually attentive to multiple points of view.

The University of Chicago Law School is by far the most conservative of the great American law schools. It helped to provide the academic foundations for many positions of the Reagan administration.
But at the University of Chicago, Obama is liked and admired by Republicans and Democrats alike.

Some of the local Reagan enthusiasts are Obama supporters. Why? It doesn't hurt that he's a great guy, with a personal touch and a lot of warmth. It certainly helps that he is exceptionally able.
But niceness and ability are only part of the story. Obama also has a genuinely independent mind, he's a terrific listener and he goes wherever reason takes him.

McClellan Endorses Obama

CC Goldwater: Why McCain Has Lost Our Vote
Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting the Republican presidential candidates this year. We believe strongly in what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics. I learned a lot about my grandfather while producing the documentary, Mr. Conservative Goldwater on Goldwater. Our generation of Goldwaters expects government to provide for constitutional protections. We reject the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.

My grandfather (Paka) would never suggest denying a woman's right to choose. My grandmother co-founded Planned Parenthood in Arizona in the 1930's, a cause my grandfather supported.

Susan Eisenhower: Why I'm Backing Obama

House Links

CS Monitor: Everhouse: A new plan for post-Katrina homes
the Everhouse, a single-family home built from concrete wall panels that are wind-, fire-, mold-, and pest-resistant. About $68 per square foot, the Everhouse is about half the cost of affordable housing in some Gulf Coast cities

CS Monitor: All the family under one roof

NYT: Up, Up and Away

Friday, October 24, 2008

Carbon Capture Farming

Idle Farmlands Could Become Profitable Carbon Storage Banks
"Our research shows that we're surprisingly close to the tipping point where tree plantations on large areas of idle farmlands would be profitable," said Froese. "If chip prices increase because of increased demand for wood fiber from a number of bioenergy projects being developed in Michigan, this alone could be sufficient."

Teddy

McCain's Hero: More Socialist Than Obama!
McCain can call Obama a socialist or he can call Teddy Roosevelt his hero. He can't do both.

"I Think It'll Electrify The World"

Rebranding the U.S. With Obama
In his endorsement, Mr. Powell added that an Obama election “will also not only electrify our country, I think it’ll electrify the world.” You can already see that. A 22-nation survey by the BBC found that voters abroad preferred Mr. Obama to Mr. McCain in every single country — by four to one over all. Nearly half of those in the BBC poll said that the election of Mr. Obama, an African-American, would “fundamentally change” their perceptions of the United States.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Choosing A New Car, Meet Web 2.0

In the past I created a "choose a new vehicle" spreadsheet to weigh different attributes and score cars objectively. Now there's a web site that does kind of the same thing.

See: CarZen

[Via Lifehacker]

Sneaky Ground Cover

Plant Edible Ground Cover
For fruiting ground cover, try planting a mix of lingonberries, strawberries, American cranberry, Creeping Oregon grape (tart but edible) and wintergreen. With the wintergreen you can use both the leaves and the berries that appear during the winter.

If you want to stick with herbs your best bets are sage, mint, oregano, chamomile and thyme. All of these grow low to the ground and are good spreaders.

Cherries Get Better

Research identifies new link between tart cherries and risk factors for heart disease
New research continues to link tart cherries, one of today's hottest "Super Fruits," to lowering risk factors for heart disease. In addition to lowering cholesterol and reducing inflammation, the study being presented by University of Michigan researchers at next week's American Dietetic Association annual meeting, found that a cherry-enriched diet lowered body weight and fat – major risk factors for heart disease.

And most of the United States' tart cherries come from Traverse City, MI.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Geologists Love Beer

And geologists especially love beer made from 45 million year old yeast.
See: Eocene Yeast Used to Make Beer

This is being done by Fossil Fuels Brewing Company and requires a visiting northern California for a taste, but it is probably worth the trip.

Managing The Economy

(I've mentioned this before)

Why the economy fares much better under Democrats
In fact, over the past 60 years, the real incomes of middle-income families have grown about twice as fast under Democratic presidents as they have under Republican presidents. The partisan difference is even greater for working poor families, whose real incomes have grown six times as fast under Democratic presidents as they have under Republican presidents.

Extra-Solar Links

PhysOrg: An American fighter pilot flying from an English air base at the height of the Cold War was ordered to open fire on a massive UFO that lit up his radar, according to an account published by Britain's National Archives on Monday
In the newly published government file, the U.S. airman said the UFO appeared impossible to miss.

"The blip was burning a hole in the radar with its incredible intensity," the pilot said. "It was similar to a blip I had received from B-52's and seemed to be a magnet of light. ... I had a lock on that had the proportions of a flying aircraft carrier."

As he closed in on the object to prepare for combat, however, the object began to move wildly before fading off his radar. The target gone, the mission was called off, and he returned to base to an odd reception.

"I had not the foggiest idea what had actually occurred, nor would anyone explain anything to me," the pilot said. He said he was led to a man in civilian clothes, who "advised me that this would be considered highly classified and that I should not discuss it with anybody not even my commander."

CSMonitor: How many civilizations are in our galaxy?
The answer is 361.

RSV And Asthma

PhysOrh: RSV may hide in the lungs, lead to asthma, researchers report

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Mind Of An Eight-Year-Old

At the magical age of eight, belief synchs with behavior
"Just saying to a child, 'You know this is wrong. Why do you keep doing it?' may not be an effective strategy before the age of 8," Davis-Kean said. "Younger children may know it's wrong, but they haven't associated that knowledge with their own behavior."

With children younger than age 8, it may be more effective to try to change their behaviors directly—either by giving them time-outs to discourage negative behavior or by rewarding them for positive behavior.

With children over the age of 8, encouraging children to think differently about their behavior may have more of an impact, she said.

More People For Obama

Petraeus, again.
The Afghanistan Test: Petraeus' and NATO's new strategy is much closer to Obama's than McCain's.

Powell
Powell Backs Obama and Criticizes McCain Tactics

Mr. Powell said he was dismayed by the tenor of the campaign, declared that Mr. McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, was not fit to be vice president, expressed displeasure with the direction of the Republican Party and called Mr. McCain scattered on his approach to the economy.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Help In Finding A New Home

Homethinking
Learn a New City in No Time by Comparing Neighborhoods & Towns!
[Via Lifehacker]

Vanity Fair On The Theft Of American Wilderness

Sale of the Wild
Department of the Interior employees are horrified by how Secretary Gale Norton and her powerful deputy, J. Steven Griles, have allowed industry to exploit America’s wilderness. Probing stealthy bureaucratic maneuvers and Griles’s ties to coal, oil, and gas, the author finds a massive, irreversible landgrab.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

More Voices Speak Up For Obama

Conservatives:

Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama: The son of William F. Buckley has decided—shock!—to vote for a Democrat.

Vote Obama. McCain lacks the character and temperament to be president. And Palin is simply a disgrace
With McCain, the "experience" is subject to sharply diminishing returns, as is the rest of him, and with Palin the very word itself is a sick joke. One only wishes that the election could be over now and a proper and dignified verdict rendered, so as to spare democracy and civility the degradation to which they look like being subjected in the remaining days of a low, dishonest campaign.


Former governor Milliken backs away from McCain
"He is not the McCain I endorsed," said Milliken, reached at his Traverse City home Thursday. "He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me...

Milliken stopped short of saying he will vote for Obama, but said he differs with McCain on the Iraq war and his choice of Palin.

"I know John McCain is 72. In my book, that's quite young," said Milliken, 86, Michigan's longest-serving governor. But he added, "What if she were to become president of the United States? The idea, to me, is quite disturbing, if not appalling.

"Increasingly, the party is moving toward rigidity, and I don't like that. I think Gerald Ford would hold generally the same view I'm holding on the direction of the Republican Party."


A long list here: More Republicans for Obama: “John McCain is not a principled man”

And at Obama's site:
Smart People:

Internet Co-inventor, Vint Cerf Endorses Obama

Friday, October 10, 2008

Who Supports Obama?

Just a few off the top of my head...

Troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
See: Troops Deployed Abroad Give 6:1 to Obama

Nobel laureates.
See: 61 Nobel Laureates in Science Endorse Obama

Professional economists.
See: Survey: Economists Overwhelmingly Prefer Obama

Most people with graduate degrees.
See: Candidate Support by Education

General Petreaus
See: Petraeus Talk Bolsters Obama

What Is Wrong With You?

Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America report card gives Senator McCain a D.

Obama and Biden both get a B.

Neko Case Links

ACL review: Neko Case
A surprisingly small crowd was on hand to see sometime New Pornographer Neko Case at 4:30 p.m. Sunday on the AMD Stage.
(What is wrong with these people?)

Musician, dog lover, activist
If you're in the process of adopting a greyhound from a local [Tucson] agency and the red-headed handler looks familiar, you're not crazy: That's Neko Case.
The alt-country and folk singer-songwriter volunteers from time to time at a local greyhound adoption agency.

Neko Case has spoken: She wants to be a ninja

Oh Meijer. You Make It So Hard For Me To Hate You

Meijer chain offers online bulk-buying program
Meijer has launched an online "groceries by the case" service that sells items in bulk amounts and offers free shipping for orders of $150 or more.

Stocking The Pantry With Planet Green

Planet Green - Preserving The Harvest

(Includes canning how-to's for strawberries, pears, peppers, etc)

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Shark Bites Dog

Man dives in to save dog from Fla. shark attack

Snow. On Mars.

This is amazing.
Mars Lander Sees Falling Snow, Soil Data Suggest Liquid Past

Another Example Of Unintended Consequences

How the housing crisis makes the labor market less efficient. See Slate.com: You've Just Been Offered a Great New Job in Charlotte!
And now it turns out that the current crisis might also undermine the efficient redeployment of human resources. A well-timed recent study by economists Fernando Ferreira, Joseph Gyourko, and Joseph Tracy finds that homeowners who have "negative equity" in their homes—that is, a mortgage that exceeds its resale value—are 50 percent less likely to move than those who can afford to pay off their mortgages with a home sale. Given where the housing market is headed, millions of workers may be locked in place in the years to come, throwing yet more sand into the gears of America's market economy. A great job opportunity in Charlotte, N.C., isn't worth much to you if you can't (or won't) sell your house in Tampa, Fla.

Seems Too Good To Be True

Carbon Sciences Developing Technology to Convert CO2 to Fuel