Friday, October 31, 2008

The Other Shoes Will Drop Soon

These are three things I have been telling family and friends as to why things will get worse before they get better.

1. Peak oil is no longer debatable. FT: World will struggle to meet oil demand
Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de­mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360bn each year until 2030.

The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.

2. American consumers are tapped out. WP: Finance Crisis Hits Credit Card Business
Credit card companies say that their charge-offs of delinquent debt from card-holders have spiked to 5.5 percent, and could jump to 8 percent in coming months, a level not seen since the dot-com bust in 2001, The New York Times reports.

3. New car sales are almost non-existent which will lead to further job losses. See: Car sales are going from bad to worse